Introducing Forecasts in Precip

If you’re familiar with Precip, you already know we’re obsessed with rainfall accuracy. Our core value proposition is showing exactly how much it has rained at any given location with precision and accuracy. While that’s not changing, we also know that looking forward matters too and wanted to bring our users the full picture in one place with the same precision and accuracy you’re used to from Precip.

In this post we’ll cover the details of the new Precip forecast features, how we think we’ve made something worth using over your old weather app, and even a little bit about how ensemble models work.

The Highlights

There are countless weather apps available for free so let’s get right into why you should use Precip. There are three main things that we’ve prioritized to make it worth using over other apps:

1. Ensemble-Powered Forecasts
   Our forecasts use a blend of multiple weather models (an “ensemble”) to give you a more reliable prediction, not just a single guess. This means you see the most likely outcome

2. Live Precipitation Map
   When it comes to predicting incoming rain, nothing beats looking at it and visualizing for yourself where it is headed. We put the Live map front and center when there is rain in your area.

3. Clean and Simple Design
   We took inspiration from some of the most loved weather apps (RIP DarkSky) and blended in our own ways to subtly introduce details that matter while still keeping the design simple and easy to find the most important information.

How We Use Ensembles to Deliver Higher Accuracy Forecasts

Most weather forecasts rely on a single model run, which can be unreliable, especially for longer time horizons. The main problem is that weather gets simulated through physics equations from a single starting point. What happens if the starting parameters were just slightly off (as they almost certainly are)? Even if the physics are correct, single deterministic forecasts are fragile because of their reliance on starting conditions and can end up being wrong.

Ensemble forecasting takes a different approach by running multiple model variations simultaneously, each with slightly different initial conditions. They simulate all the possible outcomes instead of just one.

Think of it like asking 20 meteorologists to make the same forecast. While individual predictions might vary, the consensus and spread of those predictions tell us much more about what’s likely to happen. By taking the average of all the possible outcomes, we can improve the accuracy for medium range forecasts vs old-school deterministic models that most weather apps show their users.

Smart Ensemble Blending

Rather than simply averaging all available models, we’ve developed a custom blending algorithm that weights different models based on their historical performance for specific time horizons and weather patterns. Early on, we weight toward the highest-resolution deterministic model with some influence from a high-resolution ensemble. Later we apply more weight to the highest skill global ensemble model.

The result is best of both worlds: the most up-to-date, highest resolution forecast built on weighted probabilities from the most skillful model for the given lead time. For a little extra fun, we added a “Compare” toggle that lets you dig in to what each major weather model predicts compared to the Precip AI blend.

Live Map with Nowcast

Numbers are great, but when it comes to rain nothing beats seeing it on the map. We’ve incorporated a preview on the live map on the Forecast tab.

The live map makes it easy to see the incoming precipitation event and make your own guess at where it’s headed. The map automatically moves to the top of the page if it is raining near the location you’re looking at.

Clicking the preview takes you to the fullscreen Live layer on the Map tab with the addition of an all new Nowcast predicting where the precipitation will move at 10 minute intervals up to 60 minutes ahead of the current time

Clean and Simple Design

The Forecast Tab design copies some of the details we love the most out of incredible weather apps, while also introducing a few subtle new patterns that we think strike a great balance between showing detail and not overwhelming.

The most obvious feature is making sure precipitation is prioritized. With the last precip and next precip tabs, you’ll never be in doubt about how long its been since it rained or when it will rain next.

Something we stole from the original DarkSky app design is the dynamic positioning of the temperature range on the Daily Forecast section. With this layout you can visually identify the range of temperatures for each day and intuitively see how they compare to each other. We always loved that and felt it was necessary to bring it back.

Finally, we introduced a subtle but useful new feature: temperatures are colored by how it actually feels. Instead of cluttering the interface with a “feels like” temperature, we decided to use color to communicate an often misunderstood and overlooked aspect of modern forecasts. A sunny, humid day feels much hotter than a cloudy dry day and the colors in Precip reflect that.

Looking Forward

The Forecast Tab is just the beginning of where we think we can go with forecasts in Precip. Let us know what you think and where you’d like us to go next.

Whether you’re planning a weekend hike, scheduling outdoor work, or simply curious about tomorrow’s weather, the Forecast Tab gives you reliable data to make informed decisions with confidence.